2016 bellwether counties 2016 bellwether counties

Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. . Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. How could 16 out of 17 bellwether counties predict a Trump win - Quora Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. 6. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. It also backed Gov. (The highest value being again 66.1%). Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Watch Hampton City. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. What are your thoughts on this article? Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. (subject to censorship). Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. Republicans have paid some attention. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. 4. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. These are the bellwether counties. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. Seriously. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. Read about our approach to external linking. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. The Tipping Points of the 2016 Election - The Atlantic It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. It's happened before. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. They simply vote on merit. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. Not a bad streak. 10 bellwether counties that could signal where the election is headed In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania | OZY A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Trump won the other 18 counties. (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". Read about our approach to external linking. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. It did go for John Kerry in 2004, though, when Bush won the state, so let's see if Monroe retains its bellwether status beyond two elections or if it was just a cheeseburger in paradise. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. It gets a lot more interesting. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images Click here, for more. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Enter Donald Trump. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. But both are worth watching. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. Until this year. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Their hopes are real. our Gitlab account where you can This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. But it's also not unprecedented. 12. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. Lets find a coin, and flip it. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. Telegram Telegram Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties - Election Fraud at a Glance "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020.